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Proljećna ekonomska prognoza za Crnu Goru 2021, EK

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Proljećna ekonomska prognoza za Crnu Goru 2021, Evropska komisija

Crna Gora doživjela je vrlo duboku recesiju 2020. godine jer je COVID-19 teško utrošio na svoje gospodarstvo ovisno o turizmu, oslabivši i vanjsku i domaću potražnju. Djelimični oporavak turizma i ulaganja predviđa se za 2021. g. dok će domaćinstva i preduzeća i dalje imati koristi od podrške javnih politika. Bez obzira na trajnu štetu pandemije na domaćim kompanijama i radnoj snazi, ekonomija bi se mogla približiti nivou od prije pandemije 2022. godine, vođeno povratkom redovne turističke sezone s pozitivnim učincima prelivanja na privatnu potrošnju, zaposlenost, spoljni bilans i budžetski prihod, a potonji je takođe podržan određenim rastom inflacije zbog rastuće domaće potražnje.

Montenegro experienced a very deep recession in 2020 as the COVID-19 took a heavy toll on its tourism-dependent economy, weakening both external and domestic demand. A partial recovery of tourism and investment is projected for 2021 while households and firms will continue to benefit from public policies support. Notwithstanding the pandemic’s enduring damage on domestic companies and labour, the economy could come closer to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, driven by the return of a regular tourism season with positive spill-over effects on private consumption, employment, external balances and budget revenue, the latter also supported by some rise of inflation due to growing domestic demand.

Click to access ecfin_forecast_spring_2021_me_en.pdf

The persistent high rate of infections and slow progress with COVID-19 vaccination threaten the 2021 summer tourism season, which is vital for improving Montenegro’s weak economic and fiscal outlooks. The baseline scenario is for a partial recovery of tourism in 2021, reaching a level of visitors close to historical averages in 2022. Under this premise, private consumption would rebound driven by a partial recovery in employment as well as the revival of retail trade boosted by tourists demand. Government consumption growth is expected to turn into positive territory as of 2021, but only moderately due to limited fiscal space. Fixed capital formation is set to recover partially in 2021 as planned public projects in transport and energy start materialising and private investments in tourism and telecommunication sectors kick in. However, some deceleration of investment growth is foreseen in 2022, following the finalisation of the first section of the Bar-Boljare highway. Some accumulation of inventories could be expected at the end of 2021, as lower tourists demand for goods might fell short compared to local stocks. Exports, in particular of services, are expected to rebound sharply in both 2021 and 2022, while imports would follow at a slower pace, in particular in 2022 as the end of the highway works reduces demand for construction material.

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